Monday, May 18, 2026 – Kenya woke up to eerily quiet roads and stranded commuters as a nationwide transport strike paralyzed the country’s road network. What should have been a busy Monday morning rush hour instead saw empty highways, locked matatu stages, and thousands of Kenyans forced to walk for hours to their destinations—all in response to diesel prices hitting an unprecedented Ksh 242.92 per litre, the highest in Kenya’s history.

The strike, organized by the Transport Alliance—a coalition of matatu owners, boda boda riders, truck operators, and digital taxi services—represents one of the largest coordinated industrial actions in Kenya’s transport sector history, bringing together stakeholders who collectively move millions of Kenyans and billions of shillings worth of goods daily.

The Spark: EPRA’s Latest Price Hike

On Thursday, May 14, 2026, the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) announced fuel price adjustments that sent shockwaves through Kenya’s economy. The latest monthly review increased diesel prices by Ksh 46.29 per litre—surpassing even the previous record increase of Ksh 40.30 set just one month earlier in April 2026.

Super petrol rose by Ksh 16.65 per litre, while kerosene prices remained unchanged at Ksh 152.78. In Nairobi, motorists now pay Ksh 214.25 for a litre of petrol and Ksh 242.92 for diesel—prices that would have been unthinkable just months ago.

To put this in perspective, diesel has increased by approximately 70 percent in the past two months alone, according to transport industry leaders. The gap between diesel and petrol prices has also reached historic levels, with diesel now Ksh 28.67 more expensive than petrol—a reversal of traditional pricing patterns that has profound implications for Kenya’s diesel-dependent transport and logistics sectors.

What Caused This Unprecedented Surge?

The Global Context: Strait of Hormuz Crisis

EPRA attributes the sharp price increases to a devastating combination of global market disruptions. The landed cost of imported diesel rose by 20.32 percent between March and April 2026, jumping from USD 1,073.82 to USD 1,291.98 per cubic metre. Super petrol’s landed cost increased by 10 percent from USD 823.27 to USD 906.23 per cubic metre.

The primary driver of these increases is the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis. Since February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran, shipping traffic through this critical waterway has been severely restricted. The strait, which normally carries approximately 20 percent of the world’s seaborne oil and a significant portion of global liquefied natural gas, has been functionally closed for months.

Iran responded to the February attacks by blocking the strait and warning vessels against passage. On April 13, the United States implemented a counter-blockade, preventing ships from reaching Iranian ports. This standoff has created one of the worst global oil supply shocks in decades, with Brent crude trading above USD 107 per barrel—up from around USD 70 before the conflict.

Kenya’s Procurement Challenges

Kenya imports all its refined petroleum products, making it entirely vulnerable to international price fluctuations. The current government-to-government (G-to-G) fuel procurement system, implemented to stabilize supplies and prices, has faced its own challenges.

Earlier in 2026, the G-to-G arrangement was embroiled in controversy, including the MT Paloma scandal that led to the resignation of three senior officials, including the former EPRA Director General. These structural problems in Kenya’s fuel procurement system compound the challenges posed by the global supply crisis.

The Subsidy Burden

Despite the high pump prices, the government is actually cushioning consumers from even higher costs. EPRA indicated that the government is utilizing approximately Ksh 5 billion from the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) Fund to subsidize diesel and kerosene prices in this cycle—down from Ksh 6.2 billion in the previous cycle.

During this review period, super petrol received a subsidy of Ksh 4.68 per litre, diesel Ksh 23.92 per litre, and kerosene a substantial Ksh 96.56 per litre. Without these subsidies, pump prices would be significantly higher, but the cushion is shrinking with each pricing cycle as the government’s fiscal capacity is tested.

The government has also reduced VAT on petroleum products from the standard 16 percent to 8 percent through Legal Notice No. 70 dated April 15, 2026, providing additional relief. However, these measures have proven insufficient to prevent the transport sector from reaching a breaking point.

The Strike: How Kenya Came to a Standstill

The Build-Up

On Friday, May 15, Matatu Owners Association President Albert Karakacha announced that all roads would be blocked starting Monday until the government addresses operators’ concerns. “On Monday, there will be strictly no movement of any vehicles; all the roads will be blocked until the government listens to our cry because we have been promised, but everything we are promised has not come to fulfilment,” Karakacha declared.

By Sunday, May 17, major transport companies began announcing service suspensions. Super Metro, one of Nairobi’s largest matatu operators, posted: “In view of the matatu strike slated for tomorrow, we will not be in operation. We shall communicate when services will resume.”

MetroTrans EA Limited cited “the continued high cost of fuel” and “concerns over pricing distortions in the energy sector” in its suspension notice. Latema Travellers, Forward Travellers, and dozens of other operators followed suit, creating a cascade of announcements that signaled the strike’s comprehensive nature.

Monday Morning: A Nation Stranded

As Monday, May 18 dawned, the reality of the strike became apparent. Major urban roads and highways that would normally be packed with matatus, buses, and commercial vehicles were nearly empty. At Ruiru stage along Thika Road, sections of the road were blocked by protesters as the “total shutdown” began.

Commuters who arrived at stages expecting to catch matatus to work found deserted terminals. Those few vehicles that did operate charged exorbitant fares—doubling or even tripling normal rates. Routes that usually cost Ksh 100 to Nairobi CBD were charging Ksh 200 or more.

The scenes were replicated across Kenya’s major cities:

Nairobi: Thika Road, Mombasa Road, Waiyaki Way, and Jogoo Road—normally clogged arteries of commerce—experienced unusually smooth traffic flow due to the absence of public service vehicles. At Kasarani and Roysambu, youth lit bonfires on roads and blocked private vehicles from passing.

Mombasa: The coastal city’s transport network ground to a halt, with thousands of workers unable to reach their jobs at the port and in the tourism sector.

Kisumu: Western Kenya’s commercial hub saw similar paralysis, affecting businesses and markets that depend on daily transport connections.

Nakuru: The agricultural heartland faced disruptions that threatened to delay farm produce from reaching markets.

The Ripple Effects

The strike’s impact extended far beyond stranded commuters:

Schools: Several private schools, particularly in Nairobi and its environs, sent messages to parents advising them to keep children at home due to the transport gridlock. Schools that rely on bus services had no way to collect students.

Businesses: Many corporate organizations instructed staff to work from home to avoid safety risks. Retail businesses reported reduced customer traffic, while those dependent on deliveries faced supply chain disruptions.

Healthcare: Patients struggled to reach hospitals and clinics for appointments and treatments. Healthcare workers who depend on public transport also faced difficulties reaching health facilities.

Supply chains: With cargo trucks joining the strike, movement of goods across the country slowed dramatically. Markets began worrying about stock replenishment, particularly for perishable goods.

The Strikers’ Demands: What Transport Operators Want

The Transport Alliance, representing a broad coalition of transport stakeholders, issued a comprehensive set of demands:

Immediate Fuel Price Reversal

The primary demand is the immediate withdrawal of the fuel price increase announced on May 14. Beyond that, operators are demanding a reduction of petrol and diesel prices to approximately Ksh 152 per litre—harmonized with the current kerosene price. They cite the dangerous Ksh 90 gap between diesel (Ksh 242.92) and kerosene (Ksh 152.78) as creating incentives for fuel adulteration that damages engines.

“We demand the immediate reversal of the fuel price increase announced on May 14, 2026, standardization of all petroleum products at the current kerosene price of Ksh 152.78 per litre and reduction of petrol and diesel prices to approximately Ksh 152 per litre, with the long-term target being Ksh 140–150 per litre,” the Alliance stated.

Institutional Reforms

The Transport Alliance has called for the disbandment of EPRA, accusing it of failing Kenyans and enabling exploitative fuel pricing. “EPRA was set with the hope that it would regulate these industries to benefit society. Now it has become the biggest place for cartels to tax Kenyans to death,” Karakacha charged.

Operators also demand restructuring of the National Oil Corporation of Kenya and revival of the Changamwe Oil Refinery to process Turkana crude oil locally, reducing dependence on imported refined products.

Procurement System Changes

The strike coalition is calling for the end of the government-to-government fuel procurement arrangement and restoration of a competitive free-market system. They argue that the G-to-G model has failed to deliver on its promises of stable, lower prices and has instead created new opportunities for corruption and inefficiency.

Resignation of Energy CS

The strikers are demanding the resignation of Cabinet Secretary for Energy and Petroleum Opiyo Wandayi, holding political leadership accountable for the fuel pricing crisis.

A 50 Percent Fare Increase

If and when operators resume services, they have announced an immediate 50 percent increase in transport fares. This fare hike will directly impact millions of Kenyans already struggling with the high cost of living. Routes that currently cost Ksh 50 would jump to Ksh 75; Ksh 100 routes would become Ksh 150.

Government Response: Firm but Defensive

Treasury CS: “Completely Uncalled For”

Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi addressed the strike during a television morning show, terming it “completely uncalled for” and questioning the logic of using domestic action to address a global problem.

“Why are we trying to solve a global problem using domestic means? We have not caused the US-Iran war,” Mbadi stated, acknowledging the devastating impact of high prices while defending the government’s position.

Mbadi insisted that fuel prices would be even higher without active state intervention through subsidies and VAT reductions. He argued the government will not make “emotional decisions” to solve an issue tied heavily to international supply constraints beyond Kenya’s control.

Police Response: Assurances and Warnings

The National Police Service issued a statement on Sunday, May 17, indicating that enhanced security measures had been deployed nationwide. The police characterized the strike as being organized by “a minority of transport operators” and assured Kenyans they could go about their daily activities without fear.

“The majority of stakeholders in the transport sector remain committed to conducting their business without interruption. This position has been reinforced by the United Transport Association of Kenya (UTAK), which has distanced itself from the strike,” the police statement read.

However, by Monday morning, it was clear that UTAK’s position did not reflect the reality on the ground. The strike’s comprehensive nature demonstrated broad support among transport operators, regardless of organizational affiliation.

Police deployed tear gas at several locations where protesters had barricaded roads, including at Roysambu roundabout on Thika Road, where youth lit tires and blocked traffic.

The Economic Context: Why This Strike Hurts

Kenya’s Regional Price Disadvantage

Critics of the government’s handling of fuel pricing point to regional comparisons that paint Kenya in an unfavorable light. Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro, in a press conference on May 15, highlighted that Kenya now has the highest fuel prices in East Africa despite having the region’s primary port.

“You realize that among our regional economies, Kenya is the highest in terms of fuel prices. Uganda that uses our port is selling both super petrol and diesel cheaper than Kenya. Tanzania are selling cheaper. In Ethiopia, super petrol and diesel is actually below Ksh 150 for both. Rwanda is also cheaper than us,” Nyoro stated.

The MP argued that landlocked countries should theoretically pay more due to transportation costs, making Kenya’s higher prices particularly difficult to justify. He attributed the high prices to excessive government taxes, levies, and margins imposed by oil marketing companies rather than pure international market factors.

According to Nyoro, the landed cost of super petrol is below Ksh 120 per litre, meaning nearly Ksh 100 of the pump price consists of taxes, levies, and margins.

The Tax Burden

Kenya charges seven levies and two taxes on fuel, making it one of the countries with the highest fuel taxation globally. This tax structure includes:

• Road Maintenance Levy
• Petroleum Development Levy
• Petroleum Regulatory Levy
• Railway Development Levy
• Anti-Adulteration Levy
• Import Declaration Fee
• Excise Duty
• Value Added Tax (currently at 8 percent, reduced from 16 percent)

While these levies fund important infrastructure and regulatory functions, they significantly inflate pump prices. The challenge for government is that reducing these levies would create immediate fiscal gaps in road maintenance, rail development, and other critical sectors.

The Broader Economic Impact

The fuel price increases are not isolated to transport costs. They ripple through every sector of Kenya’s economy:

Food Prices: Maize, vegetables, and bulk commodities move by diesel truck from upcountry production areas to urban markets. Transport operators pass increased fuel costs to traders, who pass them to consumers. The April fuel increases already pushed inflation to 5.6 percent—May’s even steeper increases will likely drive inflation higher.

Electricity Costs: EPRA announced that May 2026 electricity bills would include a Fuel Energy Cost Charge of Ksh 3.06 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), reflecting the cost of diesel and heavy fuel oil used in thermal power plants. Combined with a Foreign Exchange Fluctuation Adjustment of Ksh 1.10 per kWh and other levies, Kenyans face dramatically higher electricity bills.

Manufacturing: Industries dependent on diesel generators or diesel-powered machinery face soaring operational costs. Chemical and steel manufacturers have imposed surcharges of up to 30 percent to offset surging energy costs.

Agriculture: Tractors, irrigation pumps, and transport of farm inputs all depend on diesel. Higher fuel costs translate to higher production costs for farmers, who may pass these to consumers or see reduced profit margins.

Tourism: Safari vehicles, boats, and aviation all face increased fuel costs. Kenya’s tourism sector, still recovering from pandemic impacts, now contends with higher operational expenses that could affect competitiveness.

Voices from the Ground: Kenyans React

Stranded Commuters

At various stages across Nairobi, stranded commuters expressed frustration at both the high fuel prices and the strike’s disruption of their lives.

“I support their cause because fuel prices are unbearable, but I also need to get to work,” said Mary Wanjiku, a bank employee who walked from Kasarani to the CBD—a distance of over 12 kilometers. “I left home at 5:30 AM and didn’t reach the office until after 9:00 AM.”

Others were more critical of the strike itself. “These operators are holding us hostage,” complained James Omondi, who had been waiting at a stage since 6:00 AM. “If they want to protest, they should find a way that doesn’t punish ordinary Kenyans who are already suffering.”

Small Business Owners

Mama mbogas (vegetable vendors) and small shop owners who depend on daily restocking faced empty shelves. “My suppliers couldn’t deliver today because there’s no transport. My customers will go elsewhere,” lamented Grace Akinyi, who runs a kiosk in Kibera.

The Few Operating Vehicles

Boda boda riders who chose not to join the strike reported mixed feelings about the windfall from increased fares. “Today I can charge Ksh 200 for what normally costs Ksh 100, but this situation is not sustainable,” said Dennis Kiplagat, a boda operator in Westlands. “Fuel is eating all our profits. Even with these higher fares, we’re barely breaking even.”

The Fuel Adulteration Danger

One critical issue highlighted by the strike is the Ksh 90 gap between diesel (Ksh 242.92) and kerosene (Ksh 152.78). This substantial price difference creates powerful incentives for fuel adulteration—mixing cheaper kerosene into diesel to increase profit margins.

Kenya has a long history of this problem. The government introduced an anti-adulteration levy of Ksh 18 per litre on kerosene in 2018 specifically to close the price gap and reduce financial incentives for the practice. However, at current prices, that levy is insufficient to eliminate the temptation.

EPRA’s own compliance data from early 2026 identified five stations selling or transporting diesel mixed with domestic kerosene out of 753 sites tested. Those are only the cases that were caught—the actual extent of adulteration is likely much higher.

Adulterated diesel doesn’t just cheat consumers; it damages engines. Vehicles running on fuel mixed with kerosene experience reduced fuel efficiency, meaning they consume more fuel to travel the same distance. This compounds costs for transport operators. Engine damage from adulterated fuel also increases maintenance expenses.

The Transport Alliance’s call to standardize all petroleum products at the kerosene price would eliminate this adulteration incentive, though it would require the government to absorb massive subsidy costs or reduce taxes dramatically.

Historical Context: Kenya’s Fuel Price Journey

To understand the current crisis, it’s helpful to look at how we got here:

The Pre-Crisis Era (2023-Early 2024)

In 2023 and early 2024, diesel prices in Nairobi hovered around Ksh 160-180 per litre. While operators complained about prices even then, these levels seem almost reasonable compared to today’s rates.

The First Shock (March-April 2026)

In March 2026, as the Iran conflict intensified, EPRA raised diesel prices by Ksh 40.30 per litre and petrol by Ksh 28.69—increases that seemed dramatic at the time. This pushed diesel to Ksh 206.84 in Nairobi, sparking complaints but not yet triggering a nationwide strike.

The Breaking Point (May 2026)

May’s additional increase of Ksh 46.29 for diesel brought the total two-month increase to approximately 70 percent, crossing a threshold of tolerance for transport operators. The cumulative impact of back-to-back record increases made continued operations financially untenable for many operators.

What Happens Next: Possible Scenarios

Scenario 1: Government Concessions

The government could announce emergency measures such as further VAT reductions, increased subsidies, or temporary suspension of some fuel levies. This would provide immediate relief but would create fiscal challenges and might not be sustainable if global oil prices remain high.

For the government to meet operators’ demands for Ksh 152 per litre diesel would require either massive subsidies (potentially tens of billions of shillings monthly) or dramatic tax reductions that would cripple infrastructure funding.

Scenario 2: Protracted Standoff

If the government holds firm on its position that global factors beyond its control are responsible for high prices, and strikers maintain their demands, the standoff could continue for days or weeks. This would inflict severe economic damage:

• Supply chains would be choked
• Food prices would spike as stocks deplete
• Businesses would lose revenue
• The informal sector would be devastated
• International investors might view Kenya as unstable

Scenario 3: Partial Resumption with Higher Fares

Some operators might resume services while implementing the threatened 50 percent fare increase. This would end the complete paralysis but would transfer the fuel cost burden directly to consumers, further reducing purchasing power and potentially triggering inflation spikes.

Scenario 4: Global Oil Market Shifts

If diplomatic efforts succeed in reopening the Strait of Hormuz or if alternative supply routes stabilize, global oil prices could moderate. This would reduce Kenya’s landed costs and potentially allow EPRA to reduce pump prices in subsequent monthly reviews. However, this scenario depends on factors entirely outside Kenya’s control and may take months to materialize.

The Broader Implications

A Test of Government Resolve

This strike represents a significant political challenge for President William Ruto’s administration. The government faces pressure from multiple directions:

• Transport operators demanding immediate relief
• International financial institutions expecting fiscal discipline
• Citizens exhausted by high living costs
• Business community warning of economic collapse

How the government navigates this crisis will shape public perception of its competence and responsiveness to citizen concerns.

The Climate vs. Cost Dilemma

From a climate perspective, high fuel prices should theoretically encourage a shift to public transport, non-motorized transport, and eventually electric vehicles. However, when public transport itself becomes unaffordable, the result is not environmental benefit but economic hardship.

The crisis highlights the tension between long-term sustainability goals and immediate economic survival for millions of Kenyans.

Questions About Energy Security

Kenya’s complete dependence on imported refined petroleum products leaves it vulnerable to global supply shocks. The calls to revive the Changamwe refinery and process Turkana crude locally reflect a desire for greater energy autonomy.

However, building refining capacity requires massive capital investment and takes years. Even if started immediately, such projects wouldn’t address the current crisis. The question is whether this shock will finally catalyze serious investment in domestic refining capacity.

The Digital Economy Silver Lining?

One unexpected outcome of the strike is accelerated adoption of remote work. Companies that forced staff to work from home on Monday may discover that some roles can be performed effectively without physical presence, potentially reducing long-term transport demand and associated fuel consumption.

Lessons from Other Countries

The Philippines (March 2026)

When fuel shortages hit the Philippines in March 2026 due to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, transport workers also went on strike. The government declared a state of emergency and eventually negotiated a compromise involving temporary fuel subsidies funded by suspending infrastructure projects.

Zimbabwe, Pakistan, Bangladesh

These countries have faced similar fuel-related transport strikes in 2026, with varying outcomes. Most have involved some combination of government subsidies, fare increases, and temporary relief measures—but none have found permanent solutions to dependence on volatile global oil markets.

What Kenyan Motorists and Commuters Can Do

While individual citizens have limited power to resolve the crisis, there are steps to minimize its impact:

For Commuters

• Explore carpooling: Connect with neighbors or colleagues who own vehicles to share rides and costs.
• Consider alternative schedules: If your employer allows flexibility, consider adjusting work hours to avoid peak disruption periods.
• Plan for higher costs: Budget for potentially doubled transport expenses if services resume with increased fares.
• Stay informed: Monitor news and social media for updates on when services might resume.

For Vehicle Owners

• Conserve fuel: Reduce unnecessary trips, combine errands, and practice fuel-efficient driving.
• Maintain vehicles properly: Well-maintained vehicles consume less fuel.
• Consider alternatives: For short trips, walking or cycling saves fuel and money.

For Businesses

• Support remote work: Where feasible, allow employees to work from home to reduce transport pressure.
• Adjust supply chains: Communicate with suppliers about delivery delays and plan inventory accordingly.
• Review pricing: Be transparent with customers about cost increases driven by transport expenses.

A Nation at a Crossroads

The fuel strike of May 2026 represents more than a labor dispute—it’s a symptom of deeper challenges facing Kenya’s economy and society. The convergence of global oil shocks, structural vulnerabilities in Kenya’s energy procurement, high taxation, and inadequate fiscal capacity has created a perfect storm.

For the thousands of Kenyans who walked to work on Monday morning, the strike is immediately about being able to afford to get to work, to school, to hospital appointments. For transport operators, it’s about survival—whether their businesses can continue functioning when every trip loses money.

For the government, it’s about navigating between competing demands with limited resources, trying to cushion citizens from global shocks while maintaining fiscal stability.

The resolution of this crisis will require difficult choices. Either the government finds ways to dramatically reduce pump prices (through massive subsidies or tax cuts that create fiscal gaps), or transport operators and ultimately all Kenyans adjust to a new reality of significantly higher transport costs, or some creative middle path emerges.

What’s certain is that Kenya cannot continue indefinitely on its current trajectory. The transport sector is the backbone of the economy—when it stops, everything stops. Food doesn’t reach markets. Workers don’t reach jobs. Students don’t reach schools. Commerce grinds to a halt.

As the standoff continues, the clock ticks. With each passing day of strike action, Kenya’s economy suffers damage that will take weeks or months to repair. The urgent question is not who is right or wrong about fuel prices—it’s how quickly Kenya’s leaders and stakeholders can find a path that gets the nation moving again.

For now, Kenya waits—stranded at empty matatu stages, watching empty highways, hoping that Monday’s paralysis is a wake-up call that prompts action rather than the beginning of a prolonged crisis that nobody can afford.